The Story of Probability

Why was the concept of probability invented? This is the question we are going to answer through this post. Probability was discovered to answer a gambling problem. The original problem is a bit complicated but the simplified version goes like this.

Suppose two persons, A and B are playing a game of coin toss where the person who gets their toss thrice first wins a pot of gold.

If the score is 2-1 and the game has to be stopped due to some unforeseeable reasons then how would the pot of gold be divided? By logic, since A is leading with 2 points and B only has 1 point, the pot can be divided in the ratio of 2:1. This seems like a good argument but this fails when the score is 0-1. In this case, it seems unfair to give the pot of gold to B based on the previous argument when A may have a chance to win in the upcoming tosses. But if one were to calculate the probability of winning the game of the two players, then it would give us a foolproof explanation as to how to divide the pot of gold fairly. In this case, the probability of A and B winning the game is 11/16 and 5/16 respectively. So, dividing the pot of gold between A and B in the ratio of 11: 5 would be the aptest method. But you may be surprised to see that B who is leading has a lower probability of winning compared to A, who is yet to score a point

This idea of 'Probability' was put forward by mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre De Fermat. Since its discovery probability has played a major role in every aspect of our lives.

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