The Story of Probability

Why was the concept of probability invented? This is the question we are going to answer through this post. Probability was discovered to answer a gambling problem. The original problem is a bit complicated but the simplified version goes like this.

Suppose two persons, A and B are playing a game of coin toss where the person who gets their toss thrice first wins a pot of gold.

If the score is 2-1 and the game has to be stopped due to some unforeseeable reasons then how would the pot of gold be divided? By logic, since A is leading with 2 points and B only has 1 point, the pot can be divided in the ratio of 2:1. This seems like a good argument but this fails when the score is 0-1. In this case, it seems unfair to give the pot of gold to B based on the previous argument when A may have a chance to win in the upcoming tosses. But if one were to calculate the probability of winning the game of the two players, then it would give us a foolproof explanation as to how to divide the pot of gold fairly. In this case, the probability of A and B winning the game is 11/16 and 5/16 respectively. So, dividing the pot of gold between A and B in the ratio of 11: 5 would be the aptest method. But you may be surprised to see that B who is leading has a lower probability of winning compared to A, who is yet to score a point

This idea of 'Probability' was put forward by mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre De Fermat. Since its discovery probability has played a major role in every aspect of our lives.

Comments

Day 31 of Online Classes

Today was the logo release and inauguration of the social science association. They have chosen the name 'ഐക്യ ' which means to become one. The name is a good reminder for these times where the world is divided in the name of religion, caste, race, resources etc. The chief guest was Arya Rajendran, the mayor of Trivandrum and is the youngest (22 years) to hold that position. Felicitations were expressed by singers Mrs. Veena Haridas and Mr. Ravishankar. The surprising fact was that there were almost 100 participants throughout the program. The effort taken by each and everyone of the class (as well as from other classes) could be seen.

Coastline Paradox

Ever wondered how the perimeter of irregular surfaces (like coastlines, borders of a fern leaf) are measured and compared? For example, let us consider a coastline, you can see that as we zoom in on the picture more irregularities pop up, there is no stage of zooming in where we'll finally reach a straight line. So, if I had to measure the coastline using a 15 cm scale, it'd obviously ignore the small irregularities which lie beyond the scope of a 15 cm scale. If I measure the coastline using a 5 cm scale, then it would accommodate comparatively more irregularities, as a result, the length of the same coastline will be more in this case. This means as the precision of the scale increases the length of the coastline increases. Comparison of coastlines between different regions becomes difficult due to this dilemma. This is known as the 'Coastline Paradox' or 'Richardson effect' and originally the problem was framed as, "How Long is the Coast of Britain?...

Sports Meet 2022

Finally, the day is here. We've been scheduling the sports meet for quite some meet. It had to be postponed due to unexpected rains and finally, it was conducted on Sep 12 and 13 soon after the Onam holidays. We had shotput, javelin throw, 50m, 100 m etc. The involvement and participation in the second years were a little low compared to the first years. Events like shot put, javelin throw, 50 m race etc had good participation. The selection of students for the finals of each event was done on the first day. The finals followed by prize distribution were done on the second day. I was supposed to run the100m race but had to pull out due to previous complications in my leg injury. But I got to participate in the march past which was totally unexpected. By the end of the day, we were dead tired from the scorching sun, but it was all worth it.

A Peek into the Life of a Student Teacher

Search This Blog